El Niño May Bring More Rain In Some Parts Of Country – State Weather Forecaster

While the country is bracing for the El Niño phenomenon characterized by high temperatures and drought, state weather forecasters also warned that it could bring more rain in some parts of the country.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) on Wednesday said the El Niño phenomenon may be expected between June and August until the first quarter of 2024. It may coincide with the southwest monsoon or "habagat" season, which typically occurs from May to September.

"During the southwest monsoon season, there is more rain, especially in the western part of Luzon. That is what we call the Type I climate, which is rainy during the southwest monsoon seasons," Pagasa Assistant Weather Services Chief Analisa Solis said in this Inquirer report.

During El Niño, more rains can be expected in Western Luzon and in other parts of the country such as Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley, the Cordillera Administrative Region, Mimaropa (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan) and the Bicol region.

While El Niño usually brings below-normal rainfall, Solis said it also makes sea temperatures rise unusually which allows for tropical cyclones to develop. As a result, she said around 10 to 14 cyclones could form between May and October.

"This could enhance the habagat, it caresses the wind with moisture and rain... Based from our forecast from May to October, we are expecting 10 to 14 storms," she said in this ABS-CBN report.

Meanwhile, the United Nations warned on Wednesday that the El Niño phenomenon may lead to higher global temperatures and possibly beat new heat records.

There is a 60 percent chance that El Niño would develop by the end of July and an 80 percent chance it would come by the end of September, the United Nations-backed World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimated.

"This will change the weather and climate patterns worldwide," Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of WMO's regional climate prediction services division was quoted by the AFP.

El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern that brings increased heat worldwide, drought and heavy rains elsewhere, last occurred in 2018 and 2019.

In 2020, the world was hit with an exceptionally long La Niña which is marked by colder temperatures with more rain.